Studios have a lot riding on Summer box office

LIST OF UPCOMING RELEASES

Click here for a fairly comprehensive list of films scheduled to be released this summer.

The studios have felt lost for months. The box office for the first part of 2011 is off about 20 percent from last year, and filmmakers are hoping - maybe even praying - that the summer film season will lead them out of the wilderness.

So far the only real hits this year have featured talking birds or lizards or bunnies or gnomes. Apparently, though, it doesn't hurt to have a title that is one word that starts with "R," like "Rio" or "Rango." "Ringo" or "Ragu," anyone?

"This is maybe the most important summer season ever," says Paul Dergarabedian, the box-office wizard from Hollywood.com, "and I don't think I'm overstating it ... because it's about perception, and the perception now is that not a lot of people are going to the movies." And once you get people out of the habit of going to the movies, it's hard to get them back, he adds.

But Dergarabedian believes that as it gets hotter outside it will, too, at the box office, pointing to tentpole movies like "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2," the final installment of the epic J.K. Rowling fantasy series; the Pixar movie "Cars 2"; "Kung Fu Panda 2"; "The Hangover Part II"; "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"; and "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides." "That's like a license to print money," he says.

Since we are talking about perceptions, here are things to consider about comparing years.

The early part of last year was so

strong, with "Avatar" a holdover from 2009 and hits like "Alice in Wonderland" and "How to Train Your Dragon" in theaters early in the year.

Last summer started strong with "Iron Man 2" taking in $128 million on opening weekend. The rest of the season faltered, with "Inception" being one of the few exceptions. The summer ended up being the lowest attendance-wise in a decade.

But this year, even if "Thor," which is opening on the same comparable weekend as "Iron Man 2," only takes in $100 million, it still bodes well considering "Pirates," "Potter" and "Hangover" are just down the road. Plus there are other superheroes on the way like "Captain America: The First Avenger" with Chris Evans; "Green Lantern" with Ryan Reynolds; and "X-Men: First Class" with James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender as the future Professor X and Magneto. There is sci-fi and fantasy with "Cowboys & Aliens" with Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford; "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" with James Franco; and "Priest" with Paul Bettany, about a world filled with vampires.

J.J. Abrams' "Super 8," about '70s kids making a movie who discover an extraterrestrial presence, should be a big draw.

There will be plenty to laugh over besides "The Hangover Part II," like Cameron Diaz's raunchy "Bad Teacher"; Jamie Foxx's hit man in "Horrible Bosses"; Reynolds and Jason Bateman switching bodies in "The Change-Up"; and Steve Carell getting dating advice from Ryan Gosling in "Crazy, Stupid, Love."

But everything about the summer doesn't have to scream big picture.

Last summer, the indie "The Kids Are All Right" proved to be a hit and garnered awards and nominations. This summer there are a number of intriguing small-budget and serious films coming out.

Cineastes are anxiously awaiting Terrence Malick's family drama "The Tree of Life" with Brad Pitt and Sean Penn. There's also Jodie Foster's "The Beaver" with Mel Gibson; Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris"; Will Farrell in the offbeat comedy "Everything Must Go"; the romantic comedy "Beginners" with Ewan McGregor; the romance "One Day" with Anne Hathaway and Jim Sturgess; and the indie sci-fi "Another World."

Then there is "The Help," which tells the story of three very different women in 1960s Mississippi; "Larry Crowne," starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts in a dramedy Hanks co-wrote with Nia Vardalos about a man dealing with the economic slump; and Vera Farmiga's "Higher Ground," about a woman struggling with her faith.

These films could help the box office, too, getting people back in the moviegoing habit.

"Whenever you have a summer with an indie hit, that's always a good thing because you want an alternative to the typical mainstream blockbusters," Dergarabedian says.

Emma Heming Gisele Bündchen Kristanna Loken Brooke Burke Shania Twain